Corona – What could come to us in the fall – SWR Knowledge

Many would like to be more prepared for fall than in previous years. The federal government’s Corona Expert Council has put forward proposals for how this might work.

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“Foresighted Preparedness with Short Response Times to Changing Contagion Situation” – With this goal, the federal government’s Corona Expert Council drafted a 23-page statement published last Wednesday, June 8, 2022. It contains suggestions and measures to prepare for the pandemic next fall. Because the Assembly of Experts expects an increase in the number of injuries.

The focus is on protecting the health system, critical infrastructure, and vulnerable populations. To this end, experts list suggestions for improvement in the core areas of data collection and testing strategy, data processing, analysis and modeling, communication, prevention and vaccination strategy, and rehabilitation.

Learn from the past years of the epidemic

As in past epidemic years, the number of coronavirus cases is expected to increase seasonally from autumn, warns the expert council. This led to massive bottlenecks in hospital intensive care units this past winter 2021/202. Therefore, a necessary requirement of the Expert Council is, among other things, to promote the concept of alfalfa leaf for patient transfers nationwide.

But it may not be necessary to get there: The Council of Women’s Experts is calling for better communication and coordination between the federal and state governments. Central coordination of pandemic measures can help to intervene faster when the number of infections increases and to interact with consolidated regulations.

Three possible scenarios for autumn

No one knows how much the situation with Corona will worsen in the fall and winter. Depending on the course of the pandemic, the response should vary. Therefore, experts describe three possible scenarios and practical risk levels:

who – which The most suitable scenario It could mean a new virus type that is less dangerous than Omicron. With primary immunity in the population, we are now well protected against Omikron. In this scenario, the virus will be one level less dangerous, so we will only need some actions. Experts believe children’s hospitals will likely be overburdened.

In the second scenario Also referred to as the baseline scenario, Presumably we’ll go into fall with Omikron or a similar variant. The numbers are rising, but the health care system will not be under much strain. This can be seen already in the last wave.

who – which Third Scenario The most harmful will be: a new, more dangerous variant is created. Then the procedures will have to be significantly intensified again.

The press conference “Preparing for Autumn / Winter 2022/23” for the Corona Experts Council in the Federal Government.

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This is what the expert council recommends

The expert council was not specific about the exact actions, as no one knew which of the scenarios would happen. However, they suggest creating a foundation so that a quick response can be made in the event of an emergency. This includes, for example, the legal basis that mask requirements can be quickly reintroduced. Nor do they rule out communication limitations in the worst case scenario.

However, the statement placed special emphasis on the protection of children and young people. Above all, the indirect consequences of the epidemic, such as psychological problems or increased obesity in children and adolescents, have come into focus. So schools and day care centers should remain open for as long as possible and sports and cultural activities should be expanded.


Injection into the kidney vessel at the vaccination center in Ellsfeld-Euenstein (Heilbronn region) (Photo: SWR, Jürgen Harpfer)

In the health authorities, the workload has decreased in recent months after the recent wave of Corona. The focus is now on medical facilities, geriatric and care.

SWR4 BW in the morning

SWR4 Baden-Württemberg

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