Given the current French presidency of the Council of the European Union and the upcoming general elections in France, Emmanuel Macron will not be given a grace period at the start of his second term.
Once polling stations close for the presidential election, parties prepare for the June parliamentary elections. This will further alter the balance of power between the Socialists and the Republicans, who are currently struggling for survival.
The main opponents of Macron’s centrist liberal party, La République En Marche, are the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, La France Insoumise and the far-right nationalist grouping led by Marine Le Pen. What are the possible scenarios?
An “unlikely” majority of the far right or far left
According to Thanassis Diamantopoulos, professor of political science at the University of Athens and France, the hypothesis of a far-right or far-left majority in the National Assembly is “unlikely”, despite the historically high results of the Le Pen and Melenchon parties.
In France, the two-round, one-deputy majority system means that “the far right and the far left cannot win a general election even with a majority. […] Diamantopoulos, on the other hand, said it is easier for “the forces surrounding the center to form alliances.” EURACTIV France.
But in recent days, Melenchon has called his supporters unequivocally: “I ask you to elect me as prime minister.”
Given the “extremists’ underrepresentation” and the fact that there will be no “dissidents” in favor of Mélenchon, the likelihood that his appeal will materialize at the ballot box remains slim.
Another argument against extremist parties is that there are “two anti-regime stances, one on the far right and one on the left.”
For these reasons, only eight deputies were elected to the National Assembly in 2017, despite having previously qualified for the second round of the presidential election. The Melenchon party won 17 seats. These results are much lower than the results of the national elections.
The (renewed) attempt to unite the left
Various and highly fragmented left parties are currently working to unite in order to regain influence and impose their environmental and social agenda on newly elected President Macron.
Sylvie Guillaume, a Socialist Member of the European Parliament, said speaking to EURACTIV Francehopes that the “parliamentary elections” [es ermöglichen werden]For a better balance, because the presidential election is not a “blank check” for the newly re-elected president.
The same goes for the Insomes, the Melenchon supporters, who hope for an agreement on the left.
Representative Laila Chaibi explained that her movement “speaks to those who do not feel represented,” as she emphasized EURACTIV FranceIt is in talks with other left-wing forces in order to agree on a “common basis”.
The call of Melenchon and his followers appears to have been absorbed by other left movements. David Cormand, MEP for Ecologie Les Verts, stated that “the political forces on the left and the Greens need to organize if they do not want to judge themselves by losing separately”.
The leader of the communist youth movement, Leon Defontaise, said he hoped “ideas of equality, participation and solidarity will become prevalent again”.
Communist candidate Fabian Roussel called for a “global agreement” from the left on Sunday night. At the same time, he called for “taking into account the local roots and the different sentiments of the left” in order to prevent the distribution from benefiting only from La France Insoumise. This dominated the left camp in the first round of the presidential election.
But even if ‘some target groups [der Linken] Few MPs,” Diamantopoulos said, the idea of “approaching a parliamentary majority is a political fantasy.”
Any majority for Macron?
Despite the parliament’s difficulties, Macron’s camp remains optimistic.
I am convinced that the French will give the President of the Republic the means to win them over with a majority [in der Nationalversammlung] Government spokesman Gabriel Atal said Monday morning BFMTV-RMC.
With room for maneuver limited by the lack of partisan political alliances beyond the current majority, Macron will try to persuade voters of other political camps or, at best, strike deals in areas where this is possible.
Diamantopoulos believes Macron could form a “presidential majority that starts with the former Gaullists (center-right Republicans) and extends to the left, including perhaps even part of the Socialist Party and the Greens of course.”
So, according to Diamantopoulos, Macron should “wink at green voters” the day after the election, and his promise to appoint a prime minister “responsible for green planning” would be a step in that direction.
But the question: When will this position be filled? Diamantopoulos indicated that this plan could change based on the results of the parliamentary elections. If the future government leans more to the right or the left, this will also determine Macron’s coalition elections.
As a reminder, in 2017, he nominated center-right Edouard Philippe as prime minister, although he was not forced to do so because he had a strong majority in Parliament. Macron also installed several ministers from the center-right camp.
At the same time, Macron will have to devote some of his attention to France’s presidency of the European Union.
“It must ensure the success of the current French presidency of the European Union. It ends on June 30 and a conference on the Western Balkans will be organized soon, providing an opportunity to reconsider the EU’s enlargement policy,” said Tara Varma of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “. EURACTIV.
Macron will have to resume the role of European diplomatic leadership. He mentioned Ukraine in his speech about its victory in the elections. “He should immediately travel to Kyiv with German Chancellor Olaf Schulz to show Europe’s support for Ukraine,” she said.
[Bearbeitet von Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor und Oliver Noyan]